Aline te Linde will defend her thesis entitled: "Rhine at Risk? Impact of climate change on low-probability floods in the Rhine basin and the effectiveness of flood management measures."

 

Thursday, May 12, 2011.

13.45, Aula, VU University Amsterdam.

 

 

This thesis, part of the CcSP A07 project, shows the combined the effect of climate change and socio-economic projections may increase flood risk in the Rhine between 54% and 230% in 2030 compared to 2000. Also, currently implemented flood management measures, as well as additional measures that were evaluated, seem inadequate to cope with the increased flood levels that are expected in future climate scenarios.

 

In the current situation, safety levels of dikes and other flood defense structures decrease in upstream direction along the Rhine. Consequently, flooding is more likely upstream in Germany and France, compared to the Netherlands (which has a safety level of 1/1250 per year). These upstream floods act as a major retention basin and decrease extreme peak discharges up to 20%, which is beneficial for the Netherlands.

 

Although this research has been able to reduce the statistical uncertainty in estimations of low-probability flood peak events, a residual uncertainty remains since models are used far outside their calibrated range. The impact of upstream flooding and climate change adds to the unpredictability of extremes. An effective climate change adaptation policy on flood risk management should embrace these inherent uncertainties.