Abstract

It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios ‘Welvaart en Leefomgeving’ (WLO – The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme.

WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socioeconomic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account.

Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective ‘shopping’ may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios.

The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme.
The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios.

In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key scenario data from WLO and other sources. On this site climate researchers have quick access to the most important socio-economic data derived from WLO and other scenarios. After registration they can also add new data.  

Read more: synthesis report
Contact: project IC11